COVID19 IDM | Simulator

Type State/District Name

Natural History & Demographic Parameters

Enter First Wave Details

Date - first wave peak:

Seroprevalence at peak (%):

Absolute number of symptomatic cases reported on the first wave peak date:

Enter Second Wave Details

Date - second wave peak:

Absolute number of symptomatic cases reported on the second wave peak date:

Reproduction Rate (R₀)
Click for Seroprevalence Table

R₀(Wave 1):

R (Wave 2):

R (Wave 3):

Basic scenarios

Restriction scenarios for the second wave

State/District 2^nd wave Restriction Start Date:

State/District 2^nd wave Restriction End Date:

Effectiveness of Restrictive Measures:

Increase in population (due to migrant workers/ tourist influx/ religious gathering etc.)

Increase in Population Density (%):

Vaccination scenarios

As vaccination coverage is ramped up, what percentage of people aged 15 years and above will ultimately receive BOTH doses?

How many months will it take to reach this level of coverage?

Advanced scenarios

Include Waning of Immunity

Duration of Immunity:
(in month)

New Variant Details

Date of emergence of New variant
Transmission efficient/ Immune escape ability

Increase in transmissibility of new variant, relative to second-wave virus

Increase in transmissibility(%):

Third wave immune escape (%) :

Third Wave severity relative to Delta

Proportion needing hospitalization, relative to Delta(%)

Proportion of hospitalised cases needing oxygen support, relative to Delta(%)

Whether to recommend home-based monitoring and care

Simulated multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19

Seroprevalence 8.1% as of 17-09-2020

At the national level, the second seroprevalence survey found a seroprevalence of around 8.1% at first wave peak. This value may vary in different states.

Third Wave is not predicted

Peak Healthcare demand for 3^rd wave scenarios per million population

(Average duration of hospitalisation is 5 days)

Among Symptomatic Cases	Age Groups (Years)			Total
Among Symptomatic Cases	0-17	18-59	>59	Total
Needing Hospitalization (Max Occupancy)	0	0	0	0
Needing Oxygen (Max Occupancy)	0	0	0	0
Needing Ventilator (Max Occupancy)	0	0	0	0